Southwick MX National Preview

The only sand track on the circuit makes predictions pretty simple, if all goes well...

Tyla Rattray is one guy you can count on to be in the mix in the Southwick sand. (Photo: CoxMX.com)

Anyone who has been to the sand tracks in Europe – like Lierop (no longer on the GP schedule), Lommel, etc. – will notice big, key differences in the “sand tracks” there versus the one and only sand track here on the AMA schedule – Southwick.

First, the European tracks are very technical. The sand tends to hold water really well, and the tracks are slow-speed, rutted, gnarly affairs where line choice is the biggest key of all.

Southwick, on the other hand, is normally much more high-speed, and line choice is never as big of an issue, as there are normally one or two good lines in any turn, and a few more on any straightaway.

However, in both cases, the real key to speed on sand tracks is to find a rhythm, because 35 minutes of fighting the bike and the track is going to be too much for even the most fit racers. If you want to be successful in the sand, you have to have experience in the sand, so you can find a rhythm and let the race come to you.

And it’s because of this last point that there are typically a couple categories of racers who do really well at Southwick, which is where this weekend’s AMA National will be held: Racers who have raced the GPs in Europe, and racers who have a lot of experience in the sand for training (for example, racers from Florida, such as Ricky Carmichael).

Sand is its own animal, and in the 250 class, a betting man would be smart to bet on Monster Energy/Pro Circuit Kawasaki’s Tyla Rattray. He got his first win at Southwick in the second moto in 2009. Last year, Rattray took the overall with a 2-2 score. But this year, he’s in a much better position to win at Southwick, and barring any disasters, chances are he will.

And this isn’t to say that points leader Dean Wilson won’t be up there, because he will, or even Blake Baggett, who has won more Nationals than anyone so far this season, but the two guys who beat Rattray in the individual motos at last year’s event – Justin Barcia and Trey Canard – are 450 guys right now (and Canard is obviously hurt at the moment).

Ryan Villopoto (2) and Ryan Dungey (1) should be fighting for wins, and the points lead, at Southwick. (Photo: CoxMX.com)

In the 450 class, Ryan Dungey went 1-1 last year, and he’ll be strong again this year, but we need to keep an eye on his teammate Brett Metcalfe, who would’ve won moto two last year if not for running out of fuel on the last lap. Metcalfe grew up riding in sand back home in Australia, and Dungey spends most of the year training at Ricky Carmichael’s place in Florida.

Points leader Ryan Villopoto also trains in Florida for much of the year, though, and although he hasn’t raced Southwick on a 450 yet, he has always performed well at Southwick. The last two times he raced Southwick, he won the overall. And he likes his 2012 KX450F a lot…

And then there’s Chad Reed. Reed has raced the GPs, and grew up in Australia just like Metcalfe. He is good in the sand, too. For him, the big question is going to be whether he can find his way out of the funk he got himself into when he crashed so big at Millville. He hasn’t been the same since.

After Southwick, it’s the home stretch, with the final two rounds coming on the next two weekends in Steel City and at Pala in SoCal. Then it’s off to the MXoN the weekend after that. After a bunch of waiting around, things are going to go by quickly from here on out.

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